1. When something goes badly, I don’t
automatically assume I did something wrong. Instead I ask myself, “What policy
was I following that produced this bad outcome, and do I still expect that
policy to give the best results overall, occasional bad outcomes notwithstanding?”
If yes, then carry on! The reason this habit is so important is that even the
best policies will fail some percent of the time, and you don’t want to abandon
them (or beat yourself up) as soon as one of those inevitable failures pops up.
I think it’s good to continue checking on
risks that would be really bad if I was right. Even if, most of the time, it
turns out I was wrong.” P 164
2. I think most recommendations are bad because
they’re one-size-fits-all. “Take more risks.” “Don’t be so hard on yourself.”
“Work harder.” The problem is that some people need to take more risks, while
others need to take fewer risks. Some people need to ease up on themselves,
while others are already too self-forgiving. Some people need to work harder,
while others are already skating on the edge of burnout. And so on.
So, I think
the most useful kind of recommendations are about improving your general
judgment—your ability to accurately perceive your situation (even if the truth
isn’t flattering or convenient), your possible options, and the tradeoffs
involved. Good judgment is what allows you to evaluate whether a recommendation
is appropriate to your situation or not; without it, you can’t tell the
difference between good and bad advice. P 164-165
3. One distraction I’ve learned to avoid is
consuming media that’s just telling me things I already know and agree with
(for example, about politics). That stuff can be addictive because it feels so
validating—it’s like venting with a friend—but you’re not learning from it, and
over time, I think indulging that impulse makes you less able to tolerate other
perspectives. So I broke my addiction by, essentially, reminding myself how
much time I was wasting not learning anything. P 165
4. I sometimes find myself torn between two
options, and it’s clear to me that the stakes are high, but it’s not at all
clear which option is better. So I keep agonizing over the choice, Ping-Ponging
back and forth between my options, even though I’m not getting any new
information.
Fortunately, at some point in this process, I remember this
principle: Uncertainty over expected value (EV) just gets folded into EV. So,
if I know that one of option A or B is going to be great, and the other’s going
to be a disaster, but I’m totally unsure which is which, then they have the
same expected value.
That’s a powerful reframe. Thinking to yourself, “One of
these options is great and the other’s terrible, but I don’t know which is
which” is paralyzing—but thinking to yourself, “These options have the same
expected value as each other” is liberating.
(Of course this assumes you can’t
cheaply purchase more information about A and B to reduce your uncertainty
about which is better. If you can, you should! This advice is about getting
yourself to act in situations where there’s no more cheap info left to
purchase, and you feel paralyzed.)
“Is there some way for me to get
additional information that would settle this question?”
~if there’s no additional information you could easily get that
would make the “right choice” clear—then you should relax and just pick one
without worrying anymore. And I know that “relax and stop worrying” is often
easier said than done, but if I can’t tell which one is the better choice, then
for all intents and purposes, they’re equally good choices. P 165-166
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Galef
https://juliagalef.com/about-me/
https://twitter.com/juliagalef?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
JULIA GALEF is a writer and speaker who
focuses on the question, “How can we improve human judgment, especially on
complex, high-stakes decisions?” Julia is the co-founder of the Center for
Applied Rationality, a nonprofit that runs workshops on improving reasoning and
decision-making. Since 2010, she has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast, a
biweekly show featuring conversations with scientists, social scientists, and
philosophers. Julia is currently writing a book about how to improve your
judgment by reshaping your unconscious motivations. Her TED Talk, “Why You
Think You’re Right—Even If You’re Wrong,” has more than three million views.
Reference
Ferriss,
Timothy. Tribe of Mentors: Short Life Advice from the Best in the World (P.
163). Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Kindle Edition.
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